The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Aaron Nola goes to the hill for the Phillies, while Zac Gallen takes the ball for the Diamondbacks.
Aaron Nola has a 3.08 ERA. He has been very good for the Phillies this year. He is, however, not an easy pitcher to get a read on. Check out his last eight starts in terms of earned runs allowed. From July 11 through Aug. 25, here are the eight numbers of earned runs allowed: five, zero, five, one, one, one, five, zero. Certainly over the past two months, Nola has either been excellent or below-average, with nothing in between. If you look at his starts in May and June, the larger overall patterns have not changed very much. Only in April were his starts more consistent from week to week (not necessarily better, either, because he wasn’t dominating hitters in his better starts that month). Will Nola give up five runs against the D-Backs, or only one? You decide.
Zac Gallen has been terrific for Arizona this year. He had a 1.14 ERA on May 19. He was exceptional in the first month and a half of the season. Then, from late May through early July, hitters made adjustments and figured him out. On July 8, his ERA ballooned to 3.62. Everyone wondered if this regression was going to be permanent, or if Gallen would find an answer. He has responded by shaving one run off his ERA and doing something special in the process.
Gallen is working on a 27 1/3-inning scoreless streak. The last run he gave up was on Aug. 2 in Cleveland in the sixth inning against the Guardians. In his last four starts — from Aug. 8-24 against the Pirates, Rockies, Giants, and Royals — he hasn’t allowed a run. In his 27 1/3 scoreless innings, Gallen has allowed just 12 hits and six walks while striking out 32. He is limiting baserunners, he is forcing hitters to put the ball in play, and he is striking out plenty of batters. It’s a complete profile for a pitcher, even though Gallen doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2022 MLB season.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Phillies-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Diamondbacks Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+126)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-152)
Over: 7 (-128)
Under: 7 (+104)
Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread
The Phillies lost to the D-Backs on Monday, but in general, they have done well against bad teams this season. Fattening up on the Marlins, Nationals, Reds, and Pirates — which the Phils have done in 2022 — has enabled Philadelphia to move into playoff position in the National League. One loss on Monday shouldn’t change how to view this game or this series in Phoenix. Aaron Nola is usually very strong on the mound. He should be able to bring home this game for the Phils and get them back on track after a brief dip in performance. Let’s also acknowledge that the Phils led 7-0 in the fourth on Monday. We can reasonably call that game — a 13-7 loss — an outlier.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After winning on Monday and coming back from a seven-run deficit — the largest comeback in franchise history — the D-Backs have to feel good about themselves. They watched top prospect Corbin Carroll hit a tiebreaking two-run double in the fifth, part of Arizona’s complete offensive explosion: six runs in the fourth, six in the fifth. In addition to the good vibes provided by Monday’s win, two other facts are reasons to pick the Diamondbacks here:
One, Zac Gallen has his 27 1/3-inning scoreless streak. Two: Arizona is 11-3 versus Philadelphia in its last 14 games between the two teams at Chase Field in Phoenix. This building has, for whatever reason, been a house of horrors for Philly.
Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
If the Chase Field curse is something you want to bet on, fine, but you should stay away from this game. Zac Gallen is pitching so well that the Phillies’ superiority might not manifest itself in this game. Stay away, but if you have to make a pick, take the D-Backs plus the run and a half.
Final Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5
