Major League Baseball’s new draft lottery system has had some unintended circumstances for the A’s series in Washington that began Tuesday night.
In previous seasons this otherwise mundane, three-game battle between teams with the two worst records in baseball would offer a bit of intrigue over the battle for the No. 1 overall draft pick.
That’s all changed. Because the lottery will now determine the draft order, we’ll just be looking at a pair of struggling teams who’ve dealt away multiple All-Stars and now giving youngsters a chance to prove themselves.
Well, some people will be watching.
For the A’s (49-81), who came into play Wednesday 5½ games behind the Nationals (43-86) in the race to the bottom of the MLB standings, it’s just more of the same, season-long plan since jettisoning All- Stars Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Chris Bassitt for prospects.
The Nationals continued stripping away their talent by trading superstar Juan Soto as well as All-Star Josh Bell at the trade deadline. After losing homegrown superstars Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon a couple of years earlier, Washington has now dealt away Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Soto and Bell in the past year.
The wrench in the rebuild for both the A’s and Nationals is neither is assured of receiving a Top 5 pick in the 2023 draft despite each team heading towards 100-loss seasons. Blame for that rests squarely on the shoulders of franchises who’ve embraced tanking for top picks over the years.
As part of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and players association, the first six picks in each year’s draft will now be determined via the lottery system. All 18 teams not qualifying for the postseason will be eligible for the lottery, which Major League Baseball has yet to reveal when it will take place.
In another step to disincentivize tanking, the three teams with the worst records will each have the same odds of winning the lottery as they would of picking second through sixth. Currently, the Nationals, A’s and Pirates (just one-half game behind Oakland before Tuesday) all have the same 16.5% chance of earning the No. 1 lottery pick. The fourth-worst team (Detroit right now) has a 13.25% chance and the fifth-worst team (Cincinnati) is at 10%.
The Nationals, A’s and Pirates – the three worst now — would also share these odds for picking: No. 2 overall (15.6%), No. 3 (14.5%), No. 4 (13.2%), No. 5 (11.6%) and No. 6 (9.7%). Thus, the Nats, A’s and Pirates would have an identical 47% shot of getting a top 3 pick.
The worst team can pick no lower than No. 7 (19%) while the second-worst can finish as low as eighth (2.8%), depending on how the lottery balls bounce.
Meanwhile, should the Giants miss the postseason they’d too have a chance at getting the top pick of the 2023 draft next July – albeit a minuscule one. Currently the 13th-worst team record-wise, the Giants’ chances of winning the lottery are 0.9%. They’d have an 8.2% chance of moving into the Top 6, with descending odds ranging from picking No. 2 overall (1%) to choose No. 6 (2%).
At No. 13, San Francisco’s pick would most likely not change – there’s a 71.9% shot of remaining there.
The lottery itself will provide some anticipation and excitement for fans of the also-ran teams. But anyone expecting baseball’s lottery prize to create widespread joy like it does in the NBA, is obviously misguided. Having the No. 1 overall pick will provide the winning MLB team a larger signing bonus pool, but there’s little name recognition associated with most top baseball picks.
Next year’s draft should follow suit as there’s no consensus must-have No. 1 pick available, according to any draft expert.
In five years, LSU right fielder Dylan Crews, the presumed No. 1 pick in way-too-early mock drafts, could very well be on his way to becoming an All-Star. His 1.135 OPS during his two years in college certainly offers considerable upside. The wait for Crews or any of the other consensus top prospects – Ole Miss shortstop Jacob Gonzalez, Tennessee righty Chase Dollander or even Stanford third baseman Drew Bowser – figures to be a long one for major league fans.
Until then, the A’s-Nationals series might have to suffice.