We finally broke through with our NBA picks against the spread earlier this week, cashing in on easy wins by the Cavaliers and Pelicans while falling short with the Jazz as short road underdogs against the unpredictable Clippers.
Will favorites have the same success again on Wednesday? Eight of the 11 hosts are favored at BetMGM, and we’ve got our eye on a trio of home favorites in enviable spots for bettors.
Here’s a look at which teams we’re betting on Wednesday night:
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NBA Wednesday odds, picks (via BetMGM)
- Celtics -4.5 vs. Mavericks
- Raptors -1.5 vs. Nets
- Bucks -7.5 vs. Bucks
Celtics vs. Mavericks prediction and analysis
This is an ideal buy-low spot on the Celtics, who surprised many across the league with Monday’s 14-point loss to the Bulls to close a three-game road trip. Even with that result, this line is a bit dismissive of just how dominant this team has been.
Prior to Monday’s loss, Boston had won nine in a row and outscored opponents by 11.4 points per game over that stretch. That’s no fluke: the C’s rank third in net rating (+6.5) across the entire campaign and have won by five or more points in 10 of 17 games this season.
The Mavericks have shown flashes of long-term upside with Luka Doncic rounding into MVP form, but they’ve also lost to the Rockets and Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets within the last week – dragging their record to an NBA-worst 4-11- 1 ATS. This is not the spot to expect that to change against one of the league’s best.
Celtics vs. Mavericks pick
Celtics -4.5 (BetMGM)
Raptors vs. Nets prediction and analysis
This isn’t as much about Brooklyn’s embarrassing loss on Tuesday to a Sixers team missing its top three scorers, although that alone is enough to warrant concern here. Rather, this is simply a brutal spot for the Nets in a season that’s rarely gone their way.
It’s hard enough to win in Toronto, where the Raptors own a stellar 5-2 ATS home record this year – tied for the third-best mark in the NBA – and have outscored teams by 6.4 points per game in those games. It’s even harder to do it on the second night of a back-to-back, a one-day international trip that the NBA tends to limit to roughly 10 times per year, on average.
As you can imagine, it often doesn’t go well. Teams in that spot are 14-21-1 ATS (40%) over the last five seasons, and the Nets are the first such team to face that situation this year. Good luck with that one.
Raptors vs. Nets pick
Raptors -1.5 (Caesars)
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Bucks vs. Bulls prediction and analysis
Few teams have dominated a series quite like the Bucks have against the Bulls, who have struggled to keep pace when these teams face off.
Since Giannis Antetokounmpo’s first All-Star campaign in 2016-17, Milwaukee is 18-10 ATS against its division rival with a stellar 23-5 record straight up. It’s not like those games have been particularly close: the Bucks have outscored Chicago by 11.5 points on average, with over half of those 28 games decided by 13 or more points in their favor.
That includes three straight wins by 16-plus points in this series dating back to last season when the Bulls were actually among the NBA’s best teams for much of the year. That hasn’t been the case this season, and I don’t see their fortunes changing in this matchup, either.
Bucks vs. Bulls pick
Bucks -7.5 (FanDuel)