The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians will face off for the second of their three-game series on Wednesday in Cleveland. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes an Orioles-Guardians prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Baltimore Orioles, at 67-61, are one of the most exciting storylines of the season, but the clock may strike midnight very soon. Baltimore has lost two in a row, falling to three games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. With a little over a month remaining, at least, Baltimore fans will have an exciting stretch run for the first time in years.
Cleveland sits in first place in the AL Central with a 68-59 record. With just a one-and-a-half-game lead over surging Minnesota, Cleveland is in for a rollercoaster final month of the season. A solid August has put this club into a solid spot with about five weeks remaining in the MLB season.
Here are the Orioles-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Guardians Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-138)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore will send Jordan Lyles to the mound, the team leader in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. Lyles has started 26 games, going 9-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 145.2 innings. In his last seven starts, Lyles has thrown 38 innings with a 3.55 ERA. Lyles has only walked 7% of batters faced this season. Lyles’ slider is thrown roughly a quarter of the time and has accounted for 35 of his strikeouts while holding batters to a .253 batting average. Baltimore’s stellar bullpen ranks fifth with a 3.17 ERA in 499.1 innings.
Even after trading closer Jorge Lopez, this bullpen has maintained their dominance. New closer Felix Bautista has been great in taking over for that role, with a 1.57 ERA and 10 saves. Bautista has struck out 35.7% of the batters he has faced. Batters have managed to hit a measly .066 against Bautista’s splitter, which has accounted for 49 of his 76 strikeouts. Cionel Perez has pitched to a 1.64 ERA in his 52 appearances.
Baltimore’s offense, minus Trey Mancini, has mostly been treading water since the trade deadline. Anthony Santander has hit 23 home runs and 73 RBI, both totals that lead the team. Santander is second with a .257 batting average, and first with a .335 on-base percentage. Seven Orioles have hit double-digit home runs. Ryan Mountcastle is second with 18, and Austin Hays is third with 15. Hays and Cedric Mullins are tied for the team lead with 29 doubles, and Mullins has stolen a team-leading 29 bases. Jorge Mateo has hit 12 home runs and stolen 28 bases, with unbelievable defense to boot. Baltimore is eighth in the league with 79 stolen bases.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Cleveland has gone 16-10 in the month of August, continuing their red-hot summer and surging to the top of the AL Central. Triston McKenzie is one of the big reasons for that and will be tonight’s starting pitcher. McKenzie has appeared in 24 games, making 23 starts, and pitched to a 3.17 ERA in 147.2 innings. McKenzie has only walked 6.5% of the batters that he has faced. Attacking mainly with his fastball and curveball, McKenzie has baffled hitters. The two pitches have kept batters under a .200 batting average while being thrown about 80% of the time.
Cleveland’s bullpen has been on a hot streak like no other and now ranks fourth with a 3.15 ERA. Trevor Stephan has pitched to a 2.32 ERA in his 50 appearances, striking out 65 batters in 50.2 innings. James Karinchak has returned from injury brilliantly, with a 1.17 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 23 innings. The righty has not allowed a run in his last 19 (!!!) appearances. Closer Emmanuel Clase, armed with a triple-digit fastball and cutter, owns a lowly 1.15 ERA with 30 saves in 58 appearances. Opposing hitters have hit just .151 against Clase.
Cleveland’s offense has done just enough to buoy their stellar pitching, getting it done with high contact rates. Jose Ramirez has led the team with 26 home runs, 106 RBI, and 38 doubles, adding 14 stolen bases. Andres Gimenez leads the team with a .304 batting average and 15 stolen bases, adding 15 home runs and 22 doubles. Steven Kwan, the rookie sensation, has a .298 batting average, walking more than he struck out, pacing the team with a .373 on-base percentage. Rookie Oscar Gonzalez has impressed in his 56 games, with 20 doubles and a .290 batting average. Josh Naylor has belted 16 home runs, second on the team, and added 18 doubles. Cleveland is sixth in the league with 83 stolen bases.
Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Let’s give the advantage to McKenzie and Cleveland in this one.
Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Cleveland -1.5 (+120), over 8 (-115)
