The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will begin their four-game series with a Thursday night matchup at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick, laid out below.
Atlanta is in a battle for the NL East, with a 93-56 record that has them just one game behind the Mets for first place in the division. Atlanta has already clinched a playoff berth, but winning the division would be a big step this season with the new playoff format.
Philadelphia is also in a dogfight for a playoff spot, but is in third place in the NL East, but holds a two-and-a-half-game lead for the final NL Wild Card spot. An exciting walk-off win in last night’s game against Toronto should propel the team into this weekend’s matchup.
Here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+115)
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-138)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Max Fried will be tonight’s starter for Atlanta. The lefty has pitched to a 13-6 record with a 2.52 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 175.1 innings this season. Fried, along with Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider, forms a dominant trio at the top of this Atlanta rotation. On the season, Fried’s 4.5 percent walk rate ranks in the 94th percentile. Batters have hit just .180 against Fried’s curveball, striking out 46 times in 111 at-bats.
Atlanta is fifth in the league with a 3.13 bullpen ERA, with 575 strikeouts in 505.2 innings. Jesse Chavez is back with Atlanta for the second time this season, with a 2.30 ERA in 40 appearances with the club. Collin McHugh has a 2.77 ERA with 71 strikeouts in 65 innings. Batters are hitting below .150 against McHugh’s breaking balls this season. Lefty AJ Minter has struck out 85 batters in 62.2 innings, pitching to a 2.15 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen has pitched to a 3.63 ERA with 36 saves and 75 strikeouts in 56 innings.
Atlanta’s offense is led by Austin Riley, who has 37 home runs and 92 RBI to lead the team, hitting .276 with 37 doubles. Matt Olson acquired and subsequently extended this offseason, is second with 28 home runs and 91 RBI, leading the team with 42 doubles. Dansby Swanson leads the team with a .280 batting average, hitting 21 home runs and 30 doubles, tied for second with 18 stolen bases.
Ronald Acuna leads the team with 28 stolen bases, hitting 13 home runs and 24 doubles. Rookie Michael Harris has hit 18 home runs and stolen 18 bases in 102 games. Another rookie, Vaughn Grissom, has been thrust into a starting role with Ozzie Albies set to miss the season. Grissom has played 36 games, hitting five home runs, five doubles, and stealing five bases, with a .306 batting average. Atlanta ranks second in the league with 224 home runs.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
Ranger Suarez is Philadelphia’s starting pitcher tonight. Suarez has started 26 games, going 9-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 118 strikeouts in 140.1 innings. The lefty has held batters to a .216 batting average against his sinker, with 50 strikeouts in 231 at-bats. Philadelphia finally has a capable bullpen, which has been the issue for years for this club. Lefty Brad Hand has pitched to a 2.80 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 45 innings, holding batters to a .223 batting average.
Hard-throwing lefty Jose Alvarado has struck out 71 batters in 46.1 innings, with a 3.50 ERA. Andrew Bellatti owns a 3.24 ERA with 72 strikeouts in 50 innings. Bellatti is an interesting story, enjoying success in 2015 and then not reaching the majors again until 2021. David Robertson was acquired at the trade deadline, another go around after his first foray with the club ended with Tommy John surgery. Robertson has been great in his couple of months with the club, posting a 2.79 ERA with six saves and 25 strikeouts in 19.1 innings.
Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 40 home runs and 85 RBI, also leading the National League in home runs, and second in all of baseball behind only Aaron Judge. Rhys Hoskins leads the team with 28 doubles, is second on the team with 28 home runs, adding 72 RBI. JT Realmuto is second on the team with 81 RBI, leading the team with 18 stolen bases and adding 21 home runs. Realmuto continues to produce like a unicorn, on pace for 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, a rarity for a catcher. Alec Bohm leads the team with a .289 batting average, adding 12 home runs and 22 doubles.
Nick Castellanos is second on the team with 27 doubles, adding 13 home runs. Bryce Harper is back from his injury and has belted 17 home runs and 26 doubles in just 86 games. Jean Segura is second on the team with 13 stolen bases. Philadelphia is sixth in the league with 191 home runs and tied for seventh with 93 stolen bases.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Give the advantage to Fried in this one.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Atlanta -1.5 (+115), under 7.5 (-114)