The Toronto Blue Jays will meet the Tampa Bay Rays as the two teams meet for a four-game series at Tropicana Field in Central Florida. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Blue Jays-Rays prediction and pick.
The Blue Jays and the Rays are battling for that second-place spot in the AL East. Moreover, the team that claims second place in the division will more than likely get a chance to host three games in the first round of the playoffs. If the playoffs began today, the Rays would play the Jays for three games at the Rogers Centre. The Rays are 49-28 at home but just 33-39 on the road, while the Jays are 43-32 at home and 41-32 away. Therefore, the home-field advantage in the first round is huge, and both teams wish to claim it.
The Jays are 6-4 over their previous 10 games, while the Rays have gone 4-6. Also, the Rays lead the season series 8-7 and have gone 3-2 against the Jays at Tropicana Field.
Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Jays. Berrios last faced the Jays 10 days ago, tossing 6 1/3 innings while allowing two runs (one earned) over six hits with four strikeouts. Berrios is 11-5 with a 4.99 ERA. Recently in a previous start, he tossed six innings while allowing two earned runs on seven hits with three strikeouts. Berrios is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in September and looks to continue that momentum. Additionally, he is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA over two starts against the Rays.
JT Chargois will likely take the mound for Tampa Bay as an opener. Now, he will attempt to hold down a ferocious Toronto lineup with plenty of pop. Chargois is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA this season.
Here are the Blue Jays-Rays MLB oddscourtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Rays Odds
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+126)
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-152)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
The Jays are making their run and doing it in the only way they know. Likewise, their bats are powering through at the right time and getting just enough pitching.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to produce consistent results. Guerrero is batting .280 with 29 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 84 runs. Amazingly, he is hitting .281 (18 for 64) with two home runs, 10 RBIs, and seven runs over 15 games against the Rays this year. Guerrero is batting .286 (6 for 21) with one RBI and two runs over five games at Tropicana Field. Unfortunately, he is still looking for his first home run of the year at the Trop.
Bo Bichette has been a solid player for the Jays. However, it did not always start out that way. Bichette is hitting .282 with 24 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 86 runs. Ultimately, he has been on a tear since June 1, batting .295 with 17 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 62 runs after a slow start. Bichette is hitting .271 (16 for 59) with one home run, seven RBIs, and four runs over 15 games in the battle with the Rays. He has struggled at Tropicana Field, batting .056 (1 for 18) with one RBI over five games. Bichette looks to raise those stats.
The Blue Jays will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Berrios. Likewise, they succeed if the run support flows in the form of Guerrero and Bichette.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays do not score much, but they manage just enough to win most nights. Consequently, their pitching gets the job done most nights, but sometimes, they need Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco to play significant roles.
Arozarena is hitting .269 with 19 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 66 runs. Additionally, he is batting .250 (17 for 68) with one home run, nine RBIs, and eight runs over 17 games in September. Arozarena is hitting .250 (14 for 56) with one home run, six RBIs, and seven runs over 14 games against the Jays. Meanwhile, Wander Franco is batting .269 with five home runs, 28 RBIs, and 39 runs in 2022. He is hitting .313 (15 for 48) with five RBIs and five runs over 14 games this month. Unfortunately, Franco has struggled against the Jays, batting .196 (10 for 51) with one home run, two RBIs, and seven runs over 13 games.
The Rays will cover the spread if their pitching can hold on against this formidable Toronto lineup. Likewise, they need just enough scoring from their offense, and Arozarena and Franco can lead the charge.
Final Blue Jays-Rays Prediction & Pick
It seems fitting that Toronto wins this to even the season series at 8-8. Yes, these teams play tight games against each other for the most part. But this is a game that the Jays may win by a few runs. Likewise, expect Berrios to pitch well and his offense to raise him again.
Final Blue Jays-Rays Prediction & Pick: Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+126)
