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His stock and potential destinations

With the regular season almost complete, we have seen enough from each player to evaluate them and their upcoming free-agency situation. We decided to look at some of the best upcoming free agents and check their stock, see what their next contract could look like, and weigh their odds of re-signing with their current team.

Below we evaluate one of the top upcoming free agents, James Harden.

Free agent stock

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Harden’s stock is as high as it could be for a 14-year veteran seeking a maximum contract. He’s still playing at an extremely high level and projects to be the best guard and player in 2023 free agency. His value to the Sixers is immeasurable and they won’t be able to replace him if he leaves.

His partnership on offense with Joel Embiid is working as well as the Sixers hoped when they acquired him. His athleticism has declined as expected but he’s compensated for that by maintaining his high level of shooting. His 62.3 percent true shooting is his best mark since becoming a starter and his off-the-dribble shooting remains dangerous.

Perhaps the biggest evidence on the box score of a physical decline is the significant drop in his free throw rate from last season. His attempts at the line have naturally decreased since leaving Houston since he is no longer the first option on offense. But his 6.6 attempts per game, compared to 8.2 last season, is a significant drop and represents his lowest free-throw rate since his Oklahoma City days

While Harden can still score at a high level when needed, his role has shifted towards more of a distributor than ever before. His 10.8 assists per game are just shy of his career high in 2017, but the difference is that he’s making way more passes. He never was in the upper echelon among players who made the most passes per game as a Rocket. Since leaving the Rockets, he’s never been lower than fourth in the league in passes per game. He is averaging a career-high 70 passes per game, which represents the third-best mark in the league right behind Nikola Jokic and Tyrese Haliburton. This shift in his role this early on in this later stage of his career should help preserve his body in the long term and keep him fresher for the upcoming playoffs.

Harden not making the All-Star game this season seems like a snub considering how important he is to Philadelphia’s success, and how closely he ranks in impact metrics among the best guards in the league. The number of games he missed with an injury early on was the biggest factor contributing to him not getting in, which also affected other influential players like Anthony Davis and Devin Booker. With games played becoming a mental threshold for voters, and eventually an actual one for awards in the future, this could prevent him from earning All-NBA honors this season as well.

Chances of re-signing

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After Harden leveraged the Nets to trade him to the Sixers where he reunited with Daryl Morey, and re-signed with them last offseason, we would think that he has finally reached his final destination. Yet the Christmas Day report by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski on Harden’s interest in joining the Rockets has reminded us that few teams are truly secure with their All-Stars. But if we completely ignore that possibility and the follow-up reports on the legitimacy of it, we would probably pencil in Harden to re-sign with the Sixers.

We can probably expect Harden to pursue a maximum contract with the Sixers, especially when factoring in the $14 million pay cut he took this season. This allowed the Sixers to sign PJ Tucker and Daniel House, giving them much-needed additional depth. He has a $35.6 million player option that he can decline and re-sign with the Sixers for up to a maximum of four years, $210.1 million.

Perhaps the most comparable scenario for Harden’s upcoming free agency is Chris Paul’s in 2018 when he was his teammate in Houston. Paul was 33 years old and, at the time, may have been looking at his last big payday. What kind of contract he would get was a big topic of speculation with the potential of the backend of the deal becoming negative value. Morey and the Rockets re-signed him on a four-year, $160 million deal, which was a maximum dollar deal but for one less year than he could possibly get.

Harden is only one year older than Paul was at that time and has a much stronger relationship with Morey than any other player, so there’s a historical comparison to the type of contract he could be looking at. Also, since he’s already in his age-34 season, the Over-38 rule would complicate adding a fifth year that would be worth $61.9 million, making it all but certain he gets no more than a four-year deal if he returns to Philadelphia . Morey has never flinched on signing star players for maximum money, dating back to when he extended Harden to a maximum deal right after acquiring him from Oklahoma City.

Other candidates outside of his current team

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There’s been enough smoke surrounding Harden and the Houston Rockets that there has to be some truth to it. The question is if Harden wants to go back to Houston now, or if he has a reunion in mind for later in his career. The idea of ​​him leaving the Sixers now for a young raw team projected to have the worst record in the league for a third consecutive season seems unprecedented.

Conspiracy theorists could chalk these reports up as a message to the Sixers to take care of Harden. Some might believe this is a smokescreen from the Sixers and Harden to distract everyone from the idea that they may already have a verbal deal in place. But his history with the organization and the city of Houston, as well as the Rocket’s upcoming $60 million cap space projection, should not be ignored by the Sixers. The Rockets can sign Harden for up to four years, projected at $201.7 million.

None of the other cap space teams seem like a logical fit for Harden, other than maybe Orlando. They could be ready to make a leap toward the playoffs next season and could use an upgrade at guard to help with that. They’ve already been linked to Fred VanVleetwho at 29 years old fits their timeline better than Harden.

Story originally appeared on HoopsHype