We’re still not one-fourth of the way through this NFL season, but it already feels like a handful of division races have been all but locked up. The Bills are in the driver’s seat for the AFC East. The Buccaneers appear to have locked up the middling NFC South even without playing all that well to this point.
And then, of course, the Eagles are flying high after a 4-0 start that has them atop the NFC East, which hasn’t seen a repeat winner since Philly won four straight from 2001-04.
Here are three bets that we’re making in the divisional futures market at BetMGM, led by clear value on the NFL’s lone undefeated team:
How could you bet anyone else to win this division after what we’ve seen through the first four weeks of the season? The preseason favorite Cowboys are completely pedestrian and are still waiting for injured starter Dak Prescott to return. The Giants have benefitted from an easy schedule en route to a 3-1 start but have QB issues of their own. And the Commanders… where do we even start?
The only clear choice here is the Eagles, who are still undervalued in this market despite the price. Philly has been downright unstoppable on offense behind the NFL’s best offensive line and an MVP return from third-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, who ranks fifth in passing yards (1,120) and 25th in rushing yards (205) as of Monday. Meanwhile, their defense ranks third in yards allowed (277.3) and is tied for the league lead in takeaways (10).
Even if disaster strikes under center, backup Gardner Minshew has experience as a starter in this league and a complement of high-level skill-position stars to support him in the unlikely event that Hurts goes down. And if he doesn’t? The Eagles should continue to feast on arguably the league’s easiest schedule.
» READ MORE: Eagles remain NFC favorites heading into Week 5
There are clearly some issues for the Ravens to work out after they surrendered two leads of 17-plus points in the last three weeks. That also suggests a massive ceiling for this team, which has dominated for the better part of its first four games.
I don’t expect one of the most aggressive rushing attacks we’ve ever seen to continue to squander second-half leads, especially with emerging star rusher JK Dobbins (ACL) working his way back to full strength after missing the entire 2021 season. Baltimore should also see better play from its talented but inconsistent secondary, which is full of young contributors who should see gains over the back half of the season.
The Ravens are clearly the most talented bunch in the AFC North, especially with the Bengals still struggling to find their identity offensively after a fairy-tale run to the Super Bowl a year ago. This is still one heck of a price on a team that ought to reach double-digit wins by the end of the season.
We knew heading into the season that the AFC South could be the worst division in football. It didn’t take long to confirm that after terrible starts from the Titans, Colts, and Texans, who have a combined three wins in four weeks.
The lone bright spot has been the Jaguars, who look like a legitimate football team for the first time in five years. Trevor Lawrence was generating quiet MVP buzz before he lost four fumbles last week in the slippery conditions in Philadelphia, which marred what was otherwise a close affair, but he’s been superb otherwise in his sophomore campaign. And that contest came on the heels of dominant wins over the Colts and Chargers on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville still ranks fourth in DVOA after that loss, while the rest of the division all ranks near the bottom of the league. It’s a bit surprising that the Jags aren’t dealing at a shorter price in this market, as they’re the only team worth betting in this lowly division.
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