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Can Harry Kane beat Cristiano Ronaldo’s goalscoring record? Absolutely

Harry Kane of England celebrates after the UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying round group C match between Italy and England at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona - Getty Images/Michael Regan

Harry Kane of England celebrates after the UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying round group C match between Italy and England at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona – Getty Images/Michael Regan

The year is 2032 and Italy, in a role reversal of that night at Wembley a decade ago, are hosting England in the European Championship final in Rome.

Veteran midfielder Bukayo Saka – who else? – wins a penalty in the Italy box, giving Harry Kane, now 38, a chance to pass Cristiano Ronaldo’s international goal record. Kane scores and a nearly decade-long quest to knock Ronaldo off the top spot is finally complete.

Fantasy football? Not quite. Kane beating 120 goals – the seemingly impassable record currently held by Ronaldo – is not as far-fetched as it seems.

How long can Kane go on for?

It was Jose Mourinho, in 2021, who claimed that those as smart as Kane can “play football until they want” and it is here where the striker’s journey to 120 and beyond begins.

In Kane, Mourinho saw a player whose game would change over time – bar, that is, his thirst for goals. Then his manager at Tottenham, Mourinho compared Kane to Karima Benzema, who currently reigns as the world’s best player, aged 35.

Time is, unexpectedly, on Kane’s side. “These kind of players, I think they get better with time, with experience, with understanding of the game,” Mourinho said. “At this moment you see Harry and Benzema – who is already 33 now – this kind of striker, they’re very intelligent so they can drop back and assist, transform their game.

“Later in their career, instead of being the number nine target, they become a nine-and-a-half, between a nine and a 10, and they can play football until they want.”

Karim Benzema of Real Madrid celebrates after scoring to give the side a 1-0 lead during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 leg two match between Real Madrid and Liverpool FC at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu - Getty Images/Jonathan Moscrop

Karim Benzema of Real Madrid celebrates after scoring to give the side a 1-0 lead during the UEFA Champions League round of 16 leg two match between Real Madrid and Liverpool FC at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu – Getty Images/Jonathan Moscrop

Kane is 29 now and newly minted as England’s all-time leading scorer. The raw numbers in his quest to end his career with the international crown are intimidating: 66 goals off Ronaldo’s record, with the Portuguese, 38, still adding to his tally. But Kane himself says he can go on for “many, many years” and our algorithm examining the next decade of Kane softens the target.

Will he keep scoring?

Kane is at his peak today but how long will that last? A late-career run of Ballon d’Or form, like Benzema, would give him at least another five years at the top.

And the good news for Kane is this: his international record is not just a match for Ronaldo at this stage of his career – it is better.

In his first decade with Portugal, Ronaldo played 109 games and scored 47 goals. That rate, of 0.43 goals per game, is lower than that of Kane today, whose 54 goals have come in just 81 matches (0.67 goals per game).

Then, the Great Improvement and a move to striker that precipitated a run of 88 goals in 118 games, propelling Ronaldo to his improbable record.

Kane, then, is starting the second half of his international career in a stronger position than Ronaldo but with less room for improvement, and no trick to employ to suddenly boost his returns.

Even still, it is safe to assume that as Kane enters his early thirties his scoring rate will maintain or slightly increase. Gareth Southgate’s side are on the rise and Kane will continue to enjoy the fruits of England’s creative young players.

It is not unreasonable to expect Kane to score between 0.7 and 0.9 goals a game between now and the end of 2026. Burnout could be an issue, of course, but Kane thrives when the pressure is on and there will be no bigger stage than the 2026 World Cup in North America. Glory – and riches – await.

After that, a steady decline that bottoms out at a goal every other game – a fine return for most, but a drop from Kane in his heyday. His talent from the penalty spot is also unlikely to be dimmed, however – another plus.

It is worth noting that Ronaldo scored 13 goals in 14 games in 2021. Could Kane do the same? Very possibly – in which case these estimates will be proven to be vastly conservative.

Will he still be an England regular?

Kane may not be in the same physical sphere as Ronaldo, whose longevity is powered by maintaining peak condition.

But this is a man who takes his football seriously and his later years will not be undone by a body giving up on him. Kane’s game has never been about searing pace and, while questions remain as to how his ankles will degrade with age, he has only missed six games with injury for Tottenham since the end of the 2019-20 season.

He currently plays virtually every game for England and, in the immediate future, that is unlikely to change. As younger strikers come through – Kai Rooney perhaps? -his position in the side will come under threat.

Until the end of 2026, it is highly likely that he will play 80 percent of England games – a mark roughly the same as his international career to date. But that will drop off and a rate of two games in three, as Southgate and his successors rotate him, is likely towards the end of his career. Our estimates also build in one season where he only plays 40 percent of games, to reflect the chances of a medium-term injury.

With all that in mind, then, this is the result: in 2023 Kane will reach 180 caps – and 121 goals. Back to Rome and goal number 121. A leap in the air and a point to the sky but Kane is thinking only of this: goal number 122.

Kane will require luck, a sympathetic manager and Ronaldo be eased out of the picture sooner rather than later.

But can he do it? Absolutely.