We’ve got 16 games on the slate in total, including a doubleheader between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, and our analysts are on three of them: Mets vs. Brewers, Twins vs. Royals and Cardinals vs. Padres.
Here are our best bets from tonight’s MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Mets vs. Brewers
Nicholas Martin: Throughout the month of September Willy Adames has kicked it into high gear for the Brewers, who appear likely to come up just shy of a fifth consecutive playoff berth.
Adames has slugged .549 throughout the month of September, with 11 extra-base hits in 71 at-bats so far.
Adames has also slugged very effectively against right-handed pitching this season at .482, and will matchup with Carlos Carrasco Tuesday, who has allowed a .496 slug-rate on the road to right-handed batters.
Adames has historically dominated Carrasco with five hits in seven at-bats including a homer entering tonight’s game, and it seems quite possible those strong numbers continue tonight looking towards each player’s season-long splits.
DraftKings has opened Adames at +120 to record over 1.5 bases in this contest, and I believe we have value playing the over down to +115.
Twins vs. Royals
Jules Posner: The Minnesota Twins have all but been eliminated from the AL Central playoff picture and this is a great time for the Kansas City Royals to jump on a rejected ball club.
As scary as backing Zack Greinke can be, he’s been a reliable option at home for the Royals this season, posting a 1.93 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. He’s like a ninja in how he’s been able to use his surroundings to his advantage at Kauffman Stadium.
On the other side, Dylan Bundy is whatever the opposite of a ninja is on the road this season. He’s been hit around for a 5.28 ERA and a 4.51 FIP on the road. He’ll also be taking on an offense that is due for positive regression.
Presently, the Royals’ offense is last in wRC+ against RHP at home over the past two weeks, but that is a small sample and there are numbers that indicated they could put up some offense on Tuesday night.
They have the second highest BB% and the third lowest BABIP over that span, meaning they are creating scoring opportunities, they just haven’t been able to post runs.
Although the Royals’ bullpen has been abysmal this season, they’re actually in a good stretch at the moment. However, it is still safer to factor them out of the equation altogether.
The Royals’ F5 moneyline sits at -105 on some books and that should be the play to -115.
Cardinals vs. Padres
DJ James: Mike Clevinger has had an atrocious season for the San Diego Padres. He has had an even worse second half at a 5.33 ERA. Overall, his ERA is 4.47 against a 4.64 xERA. He will face Adam Wainwright and the Saint Louis Cardinals on Tuesday night.
In the last month, the Cardinals have a 112 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching. They have seven batters with a .320+ xwOBA. This should be more than enough against the struggling Clevinger.
Nothing seems to be going well Clevinger. He has a below-average strikeout rate, which has plummeted since 2019 from 33.9% to 19.7%. His hard hit rate ranks in the 31st percentile, and his barrel percentage ranks in the 13th percentile. Simply put, teams are shelling him, and he has not improved on that.
In his three September starts, Clevinger has pitched only 13 1/3, allowing 15 earned runs on 21 baserunners. This is abysmal for a guy who will go up against one of the best hitting teams off of righties in St. Louis.
The Cardinal team total has plenty of value. Take their team total over at 3.5 (-110), and play to 4.5 (-115).
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