A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify recent misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Houck’s spot in Boston’s deep rotation remains safe with Corey Kluber moving to the bullpen after posting the highest FIP (6.60) among all starters this season. Houck’s 5.30 ERA is accompanied by a 4.14 FIP (and a 3.69 xFIP), as the former first-round pick has impressive peripherals to go along with an unlucky HR/FB rate and LOB%. Houck has seen more than twice as many flyballs leave the yard than usual for him, while only three starters among 70 qualified have a lower LOB% (Sandy Alcantara should also start pitching better with runners on base moving forward). Houck’s HR/FB rate and LOB% this season are well above his career marks in the majors.
Houck isn’t going to pitch super deep into games (and it’s safest to bench him during his next scheduled start against Tampa Bay’s league-best offense), as he tends to struggle during the third time through lineups. But the former top prospect is figuring it out. He’s added a bunch of movement to his pitches in May, when he’s held hitters to just a .250 xwOBA. Houck ranks top-10 among starters in CSW this season while racking up swings and missesso he has real upside for a pitcher who remains available in more than 80% of Yahoo leagues.
Any starter with a sub-2.00 ERA is due for regression, but Elder’s might be an explosion. He’s been a huge fantasy surprise (and help) while leading MLB in ERA, but that comes with a 4.45 xERA. Elder’s K-BB% (14.0) just barely ranks inside the top-50 starters this season, and his HardHit% is in the bottom-10th percentile, which isn’t typically a recipe for pitching success. Nor is being a low strikeout, high GB% pitcher playing for a Braves defense that ranks last in UZR.
Elder is a terrific story in a year filled with pitching blowups, but he posted a 4.46 ERA (4.45 FIP) last year in the minors, and THE BAT projects a 4.63 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP rest of season. He’s a screaming sell-high candidate in fantasy leagues.
Kopech has disappointed with a 4.52 ERA and a bottom-three FIP among qualified starters. But he’s produced an eye-opening 29:3 K:BB ratio (19.1 innings) over his last three starts, including a 2.04 WEST and a minuscule 0.57 WHIP over that span. A change in mechanics has led to increased fastball velocity and a bunch of whiffs, with Kopech among the leaders in K-BB% over the last three weeks.
Kopech looked like a future star in 2021, and he’s healthy again. It remains to be seen whether he can keep it upbut Kopech is another former top pitching prospect who’s finally breaking out.
Volpe has hit just .181 in May, with an ugly 32.1 K% and a 4.5 BB%. He’s on pace for 20+ homers and nearly 40 steals (he’s a perfect 13-for-13 on SB attempts), but only 11 qualified hitters have a lower wRC+ this season. The rookie should remain plenty valuable in fantasy leagues if he stays in New York’s lineup even if he doesn’t make a major leap at the plate this season, but there’s a risk he starts losing playing time or even makes a trip down to the minors with Oswald Peraza healthy and tearing up Triple-A (148 wRC+). Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are both also due back soon, possibly leading to Isiah Kiner-Falefa seeing more time at SS. Volpe is undoubtedly a future fantasy star, but his playing time is at risk in the short term.