Jones Knows thinks Everton can finally end their dismal away run at Leeds and is tipping up some big-priced goalscorer bets on Tuesday.
Crystal Palace vs Brentford, Tuesday 7.30pm
Backing Crystal Palace to win football matches at Selhurst Park this season should prove a profitable betting strategy. The markets aren’t quite as sweet on them as perhaps they should be which is leading to bigger than expected prices on Palace home wins. They delivered the goods when dispatching Aston Villa and at 11/10 here with Sky Bet they look a bet to beat a similarly ranked team to Villa in the shape of Brentford.
Palace have only lost five home games under Patrick Vieira – only Chelsea (3), Man City (2) and Liverpool (0) have lost fewer since the start of last season. That strong form is backed up by the underlying numbers. When just analyzing home matches since Vieira took charge, Palace have shown the sixth best expected goals process showcasing a very high-performance level which has been restricted results-wise by too many draws. I’d be confident of them registering maximum points in this one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Fulham vs Brighton, Tuesday 7.30pm
Goals could flow freely in this encounter and I want to be on a couple of Brighton players to score anytime.
I had a front row view of Solly March missing 0.81 worth of expected goals in Brighton’s 1-0 win over Leeds. It was painful viewing, yet it was another performance that clarified he is hugely overpriced in the goalscorer markets with somehow the 17/2 anytime bet not landing due to his wasteful finishing. March is playing in a position akin to the one that Mohamed Salah plays for Liverpool, as a right winger cutting in on his left. It’s taking him into some dangerous goalscoring positions and this two-year drought without a goal is going to end soon. The 10/1 anytime price is worth jumping on at Craven Cottage.
Pascal Gross should also prick the ears of punters at 9/2 with Sky Bet. He is playing very advanced and his goals return since doing so is impressive, notching seven goals in his last nine Premier League appearances. That price is just too big.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | BETTING ANGLE: Solly March to score anytime (10/1 with Sky Bet) & Pascal Gross to score anytime (9/2 with Sky Bet)
Pascal Gross wheels away after opening the scoring for Brighton against Leeds
Southampton vs Chelsea, Tuesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
I can guarantee you will find better 1/2 shots than what Chelsea are to beat Southampton over the course of the next week, but it’s hard to see their defense wilting enough to allow the possibility of the upset. They won nine of their 10 Premier League away games last season against teams who finished in the bottom half, conceding just four goals. Yes, that Leeds defeat is still fresh in the memory but I’m happy to let that slide owing to Edouard Mendy’s mishap which set the tone for a calamitous day at the office.
Southampton’s Armel Bella-Kotchap is a player alerting my radar after an aggressive and all-action performance against Manchester United. He was still very raw in doing the basics, but boy can this guy play. Saints paid just over £8m for him from Bochum and he could be worth quadruple that if he continues to play with such confidence and defensive awareness. He likes to get on the ball too and is a threat from set pieces which makes him a very interesting candidate in the player shots markets as the oddsmakers haven’t really gotten a grip on him as yet. He’s had six shots in his three starts so far, managing at least one in each match.
Super 6 is back on Tuesday with a £250,000 jackpot. Play for free, entries by 7:45pm.
Although we missed some really fancy prices yesterday, it’s still 10/11 with Sky Bet for him to keep up that ratio and register at least one shot. And that will do for me. It’s worth keeping an eye on his 50/1 price to score first too as that will land at some point this season, probably against an inferior opposition.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | BETTING ANGLE: Armel Bella Kotchap to have one or more shots (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Everton, Tuesday 8.00pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
If you go solely on the expected goals data from Leeds’ 1-0 defeat at Brighton you’d assume it was a nip and tuck game with Jesse Marsch’s team creating a hefty 1.84 without scoring.
I’m a big advocate of the expected goals model to help deem a team’s true performance level but that figure completely overrated Leeds as an attacking force in a hugely one-sided defeat on the south coast. Yes, Luis Sinisterra almost managed to poke home from a yard out but to define that chance as 0.99 worth of xG is a bit of a flaw in the way the data is collated.
Leeds’ other “big chance” came via a set piece that Diego Llorente headed over which got equated to an xG of 0.44 – again a tad over the top. There is a feeling that on the whole Leeds are being a tad overrated by the markets and I’d be steering clear of the 11/10 with Sky Bet for a home win.
Everton are a tougher nut to crack this season with their addition of some key defensive reinforcements and there is a spirit building there. This might be a tighter clash than what the markets are expecting. That 23/10 with Sky BetEverton are worth a swing to record just their third win away from home since May 2021.