Here’s a news flash that was provided by Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane a couple of weeks ago when answering questions from reporters pertaining to the NFL Draft.
“We’re gonna take the best player (available), we really are,” Beane said, likely stifling his own yawn as he repeated the same phrase every other GM has uttered this year, and every other year since the draft was introduced in 1936.
For Buffalo, the question will be, what position will the “best player available” best suit the roster because this first round feels wide open for the Bills and Beane could go in several directions.
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When the draft starts Thursday night, the Bills will have a pick in each of the first six rounds, and none in the seventh, at least before any potential maneuvering via trades. Beane has made eight draft day trades in his first five drafts in Buffalo, including one that positioned him to take Josh Allen No. 7 overall in 2018.
Beane said that the Bills do not have 27 players on their board with first-round grades. Whatever their number is, there’s a chance one of their first-round players slips to 27 and they take him if it makes sense from a fit and need perspective, but it’s also quite possible that those players are all gone when Buffalo goes on the clock .
At that point, the most logical move from a value standpoint would be for Beane to try to trade out of the first round and into the second to give the Bills a better chance of matching a player with their grade.
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The difficulty is that finding a trade partner won’t be easy because other teams likely don’t have a full complement of first-round grades on this class, so it would have to be a team eyeing a specific player who they know won’ t make it to their second-round spot, yet are willing to pay a premium to move up to get him.
“There’s gonna be a good player there,” Beane said.
If the Bills simply stay at No. 27 and make a pick, here are five players, at five positions, in order of what I think the Bills need most, who could be available that deep in the round.
1. Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
There’s no doubt in my mind that middle linebacker is the primary need because I don’t believe anyone currently on the roster is a suitable replacement for Tremaine Edmunds. Campbell is the best-suited LB in this class to fill that role.
The Bills probably don’t have a first-round grade on Campbell, and most draft analysts have him as either a late first or early second rounder, so this could be construed as a reach. If Beane can trade down and pick Campbell in the second round, that’s a home run. However, if the Bills have a true conviction on Campbell, why wait? If he is who they believe he can be, then picking him in the first round makes sense because they can get the fifth-year option on his contract.
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2. Jordan Addison, WR, USC
It’s not believed to be a great class at wide receiver this year, at least compared to some recent years, but there will still be a run at the position, probably starting with Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the pick 10 to 13 range, and extending through Buffalo’s pick at 27.
Addison will be in a group that will include Boston College’s Zay Flowers, Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt, TCU’s Quentin Johnson, and maybe even North Carolina’s Josh Downs. I would say if any of those players except Downs (he’s more of a second-round player) are available, the Bills should grab one because the likelihood is they could come in and give Josh Allen immediate help.
“Addison, at the end of the process, as he started it for me, is my top receiver,” said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. “I wish he was heavier. I don’t love the 173 pound aspect, but this guy made more big plays down the field in ’21 than anybody in the country. I know he can make big plays. He can get over the top. He is a talented guy. After the catch he is not going to be able to break many tackles. Not real physical, but he can make you miss and run away from you. I think he plays fast.
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3. Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
With Von Miller probably starting the season on the physically unable to perform list, the Bills need a pass rusher to team with Greg Rousseau because, sorry, Shaq Lawson, AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham aren’t that guy. They’re fine as rotational pieces, but until Miller returns, the Bills need a true pass rusher and Murphy has a chance.
The top guys – Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson and Lukas Van Ness – will be gone, and Nolan Smith probably will be, too. I think Murphy would be next and he’s a handful at 6-foot-4 and 268 pounds with 17.5 career sacks and 37 tackles for loss.
Dane Brugler, draft analyst for The Athletic, wrote of Murphy, “He is naturally gifted with the explosive traits, play speed and length to be a disruptive leverage-power rusher in the NFL. He projects as a base end in a four-man front with the floor of an NFL starter.”
4. Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Bills probably don’t consider offensive tackle as a need because they believe they have an outstanding left tackle in Dion Dawkins who is in the prime of his career, and a young and emerging one in 2021 third-round pick Spencer Brown on the right side.
Dawkins is still a fine player, and with his hefty contract he’s certainly staying put, but if I were the Bills I wouldn’t be handing Brown anything. He still has a lot to prove and if Wright turns out to be worthy of the draft status projected on him, he could relegate Brown to the swing tackle role.
“There’s a reasonable argument to be made that Wright is the most talented of all of this year’s tackle prospects,” Eric Edholm of NFL.com wrote as he mock drafted Wright No. 16 to the Commanders. If that’s true, yes, the Bills won’t get the chance to pick him, but others have Wright closer to their range at 27.
5. Safety Brian Branch, Alabama
Branch is the best safety in the class according to analysts and there’s a good chance he won’t make it to No. 27. If he does, he’ll be someone to consider for Buffalo for this reason: Micah Hyde and Taylor Rapp will have expiring contracts after 2023, and depending on how he plays this season, Jordan Poyer’s second year of his new deal is one the Bills could get out relatively cheap if they feel he’s on the downside and want to move on.
If two, or maybe all three, of those players are gone, the Bills could give Branch this season to learn and then plug him in as a starter in 2024.
“Overall, Branch may not have elite size/speed measurables, but he is above average in almost every other category NFL teams covet with his well-rounded game to run, cover and tackle,” Brugler wrote. “He projects as a starting nickel in the NFL and offers hybrid versatility across the secondary, similar in ways to Miami’s Jevon Holland.”
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Sal Maiorana can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal’s newsletter, Bills Blast, which will come out every Friday during the offseason, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills options in first round of NFL Draft: 5 picks that may fill needs